A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
